Forecast made. Drink to it.
30 cards, rules and dares triggered by classic Eurovision clichés. Print the Drinking Game Deck once and you've got chaos every time the wind machine kicks in.
Grounded in math. Powered by history.
AI FORECAST
Both semi-finals are in the books. The model has been re-fit on post-SF2 consensus odds — live bookmaker data plus 70 years of geopolitical voting history. Grand Final: Saturday 16 May, 21:00 CEST.
📅 14 MAY · SF2 LOCKED
Post-Semifinal Reset — the 26 acts in the Grand Final
SF1 QUALIFIERS · 12 May
🇧🇪 Belgium · 🇭🇷 Croatia · 🇫🇮 Finland · 🇬🇷 Greece · 🇮🇱 Israel · 🇱🇹 Lithuania · 🇲🇩 Moldova · 🇵🇱 Poland · 🇷🇸 Serbia · 🇸🇪 Sweden
SF2 QUALIFIERS · 14 May
🇦🇱 Albania · 🇦🇺 Australia · 🇧🇬 Bulgaria · 🇨🇾 Cyprus · 🇨🇿 Czechia · 🇩🇰 Denmark · 🇲🇹 Malta · 🇳🇴 Norway · 🇷🇴 Romania · 🇺🇦 Ukraine
DIRECT TO FINAL
🇦🇹 Austria (host) · 🇫🇷 France · 🇩🇪 Germany · 🇮🇹 Italy · 🇬🇧 United Kingdom
ELIMINATED
🇪🇪 Estonia · 🇬🇪 Georgia · 🇲🇪 Montenegro · 🇵🇹 Portugal · 🇸🇲 San Marino · 🇦🇲 Armenia · 🇦🇿 Azerbaijan · 🇱🇻 Latvia · 🇱🇺 Luxembourg · 🇨🇭 Switzerland
Biggest market move: Greece (Akylas — "Ferto") jumped to #2 after the SF1 jury show, cutting Finland's lead from 30+ pp to ~13 pp. Australia got one of the loudest reactions of SF2 and is now firmly in the top 5. Switzerland out is the biggest upset of the week — last year's host country failed to make it back to the final.
How It Works
Transparency Note (May 15, 2026 · post-Semi-Final 2)
Both semi-finals are locked in: 10 qualifiers from SF1 (12 May), 10 from SF2 (14 May), plus Austria, France, Germany, Italy and the UK direct to the final. The dataset below reflects post-SF2 consensus odds aggregated across 25+ European bookmakers, then re-weighted with our voting-bloc and running-order corrections.
1. Jury Modeling (Gaussian)
We model expected jury points as a normal distribution based on rehearsal performance metrics.
ƒ(x) = 1 / (σ√(2π)) · e-(x-μ)² / 2σ²
2. Corrective Updating (Bayesian)
We treat betting odds as the prior. As new data arrives, Bayes' Theorem filters out hype and amplifies true momentum.
Posterior Probability:
P(Win | Data) ∝ P(Data | Win) · P(Win)
The Voting Blocs Matrix
The secret sauce. Our algorithm weighs televote predictions based on 70 years of established cultural and geographical point-exchange affinities.
| Receiver \ Giver | Nordic | Balkan | Baltic | Iberian | Eastern |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nordic Bloc | Very High (10-12) | Low (0-2) | Mid (4-6) | Low (0-3) | Low (0-2) |
| Balkan Bloc | Low (0-2) | Very High (10-12) | Low (0-1) | Mid (3-5) | Mid (4-7) |
| Baltic Bloc | Mid (5-7) | Low (0-2) | Very High (10-12) | Low (0-2) | High (7-10) |
| Iberian Bloc | Low (0-3) | Mid (3-5) | Low (0-2) | Very High (12) | Low (0-2) |
| Eastern Bloc | Low (0-3) | Mid (4-6) | High (8-10) | Low (0-3) | Very High (10-12) |
Eurovision History & Stats
To accurately predict the Eurovision 2026 winner in Vienna, we must analyze the past. While bookmakers set the stage, the European televote loves a dramatic plot twist. Dive into historical Eurovision statistics and the most iconic betting odds upsets.
Bookies' Illusions:
Expectation vs. Reality
UPSETS
Algorithm models are great, but human emotion is chaotic. Here are the most memorable moments when the heavy favorites crashed, and the underdogs stole the crystal microphone.
| Year | The Bookie Favorite (Expectation) | The Actual Winner (Reality) | Plot Twist Factor |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 🇭🇷 Croatia (Baby Lasagna) - Overwhelming favorite | 🇨🇭 Switzerland (Nemo) | Juries massively backed the vocal acrobatics over the viral televote hit. |
| 2021 | 🇲🇹 Malta (Destiny) - Early odds leader | 🇮🇹 Italy (Måneskin) | Malta plummeted to 7th after a shockingly low televote score. |
| 2016 | 🇷🇺 Russia (Sergey Lazarev) - 90% implied win prob. | 🇺🇦 Ukraine (Jamala) | The ultimate split: Russia won the televote, Australia won juries. Ukraine took the crown. |
| 2006 | 🇸🇪 Sweden (Carola) - Safe pop bet | 🇫🇮 Finland (Lordi) | Hard rock monsters broke every Eurovision convention—and the points record. |
All-Time Records
7
Most Wins
(Sweden & Ireland)
(Sweden & Ireland)
387
Highest Jury Score
(Salvador Sobral, 2017)
(Salvador Sobral, 2017)
439
Highest Televote
(Kalush Orchestra, 2022)
(Kalush Orchestra, 2022)
0
Nil Points
(Happens more than you think!)
(Happens more than you think!)
Beat the Algorithm
Think the math got it wrong? Got a dark horse in mind? Share the current forecast and challenge your friends to predict the real winner in Vienna!